The Pahalgam Flashpoint: How Close Are India and Pakistan to All-Out War?

1. Terror Attack & Escalating Tensions

On April 22, 2025, terrorist groups targeted and murdered 26 people in Pahalgam, Indian Administered side of Kashmir. The Resistance Front (TRF) carried out this attack and claimed responsibility. The experts on the regional affairs are considering this incident as one of the False Flag Operations Indian Government conducting and declaring their association to the Lashkar e Taiba (LeT), an armed resistance movement fighting for the freedom of Kashmir from Indian Occupation.

The Indian government accused Pakistan of backing cross border terrorist activities, but Pakistan rejected these claims by calling them baseless.

Here read more about Lashkar e Taiba (LeT).

2. India’s Retaliatory Measures

The Indian government suspended Indus Waters Treaty thus endangering Pakistan's economic group that depends heavily on agriculture.

Here read more about Indus Waters Treaty.

India also took multiple steps by removing Pakistani military advisors and cutting down the presence of embassy personnel and canceling visas for all Pakistani citizens following the border closure by shutting down the Attari Wagah land crossing together with stopping all trade operations.

Here read more about Attari Wagah Border.

The military conducted significant air and naval exercise operations known as Gagan Shakti.

Here read more about Gagan Shakti.

3. Pakistan’s Counter Measures

Pakistan declared that any attempted Indian diversion of Indus River water would lead to an actual state of warfare and blocked its airspace to flights and stopped performing the 1972 Simla Agreement in response to the escalation from Indian side.

Pakistan officially gave expulsion orders to Indian defense advisors serving as diplomats.

4. International Reactions

The United Nations demanded nations to show maximum self-restraint as a means to prevent conflict escalation. The government of Iran presented to mediate between the two countries with the goal of tension reduction. Saudi Arabia & Others engaged in diplomatic discussions with India.

5. Security & Military Movements

Indian military initiated search and destroy operations in Kashmir while deploying aerial reconnaissance drones followed by raising their ground troop strength.

On the other hand, The Pakistani military put its forces on alert due to reported similar strike plans from India as those used in the Balakot operation during 2019.

The prospect of war continues to loom between India and Pakistan.

Factors Increasing War Risks

Alongside escalating language security warnings emerge as critical factors because Pakistan declared water actions an act of war (also known as "act of war") while India vowed to punish terrorists across the globe ("to the ends of the earth"). Military readiness indications come from the massive Indian military exercises coupled with Pakistani missile testing activities.

Additionally, the historical record from 2019 reveals that both states escalated tension rapidly during the Pulwama Balakot crises.

Factors Reducing War Risks

Nuclear arms possession by these nations has turned general warfare into an incredibly dangerous proposition. The economic trouble facing Pakistan causes severe financing difficulties for the nation since it currently requires assistance from the International Monetary Fund.

The world community consisting of the UN and Iran and other groups work to avoid military escalation.

Likely Scenario: Controlled Escalation

India will maintain its practice of conducting restricted military attacks against militant bases (such as Balakot 2019) instead of launching an all-out war. Both powers will maintain imposing diplomatic pressure and economic versions of trade interdiction along with water cooperation barriers throughout this period.

The Kashmir conflict through proxy forces will probably lead to greater insurgencies and counter terror operational activities.

Conclusion

The threat of all-out war between Pakistan and India remains minimal because of nuclear weapons relations and Pakistan's current state of financial instability. The Indian Government managed to increase the military presence in the Kashmir for a comprehensive control as it wanted always. The suspension of Indus Water Treaty looks pre-planned and supports the argument of False Flag Operation in Pehlgam, Indian Administered Kashmir.

Limited military engagements together with diplomatic segregation as well as economic conflicts centered on water resource disputes will continue to persist between the two nations.

The following few days would bring critical dilemmas for national security after India conducts airstrike operations or Pakistan initiates massive counterattacks.